How did I predict this? Easy:
- I have seen two fifteen year boom/bust cycles in Canadian housing already
- interest has never been cheaper, and when it becomes expensive these people can't carry their mortgages
- uhh... the American one went down just a few years ago and has not hit bottom yet, since banks are trying to hold inventory
- double/triple? dip recession
- recessions in the US, Europe, China..
- there is no more money left to squeeze from the middle-class
- get out when people say, 'but it's a reasonable price for Manhattan', in Toronto!
- get out when people say, 'but it's different here!'
- get out when people say, 'you're throwing your money away on rent!' (Like you can't throw it away on interest, property taxes, maintenance, renovations or condo-fees)
- get out when people say, 'buy now or you'll never get in!'
Especially the last one. There are rent/mortgage calculators you can find online to see if you should buy-in or wait: WAIT! Rents are reasonable in Toronto; real-estate still isn't. You'll do far better to rent and invest for now, financially, and have far more flexibility (should you lose your sales job in a recession, for example). Now we just wait to buy some moron's house...
Originally posted: Thursday, 3 February, 2011
Another business article from Toronto is telling you condo purchase is not a disaster. First, consider the source: a business article. Never mind that a crash has to come, even if you do not believe this economy will precipitate a crash: I have seen three housing bubbles in my forty years, so I shouldn't expect to see another three before I die?
Even in a stable economy, here are reasons from the article that you should never buy a condo:
In the GTA, the average asking price for newly built condos rose by 8 per cent to $530 in the fourth quarter of 2010, from $493 in the fourth quarter of 2009. [The price of a small house!]On a related note, though this article tries to cheerlead the housing market, it sure sounds like the market is getting flooded by new housing. But this article is more telling: too many people in Ontario are up to their eyeballs in debt. I certainly did not predict the Toronto boom would last this long, but if 'value' has doubled in a decade, it should make the 'correction' that much more harsh. Good thing I want to buy in in three years.
In the former city of Toronto, new construction averaged $643 per square foot. In the downtown core, it was a lofty $723 per square foot.
Resale condominium pricing... with existing units selling for $374 per square foot on average in the GTA. In the city of Toronto it was $487, and in the downtown core it hit $518. [A loss of fifty to twenty-five percent for the seller! However, that's per square foot, since the newer ones are smaller they will be even less attractive and the loss should be considerably more.]
The new construction market is typically supported by investors, while resale condos have a higher end-user component. [The very definition of a 'bubble'.]
Foreign investors looking to the relative safe haven of Canada have also piled into the condo market. Many of the investors are from Asia and the Middle East. [Get your money out now! They will.]